-Sanjeet S. Parab
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Saturday, December 26, 2009
December 24, 2009 NIFTY Short-Term Outlook
The NIFTY posted a much needed rally to set the festive season off to a good start. I am willing to tolerate a partial retracement till 5083 - 5038 in anticipation of the NIFTY carrying forward to 5268-5300.
-Sanjeet S. Parab
Visit Technical Analysis Base for more Forecasts.
-Sanjeet S. Parab
Visit Technical Analysis Base for more Forecasts.
Friday, December 11, 2009
2009.12.08- Report NIFTY
NIFTY- DECEMBER 11, 2009
ORIGINAL REPORT LINK: http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/nifty/nifty--december-11-2009
The NIFTY came ever so close to significantly penetrating above a resistance level tested two times in the past couple months. As all other technical analysts, I am looking for a significant close above the 5182 level to mark the continuation of the previous up trend.
Now what is the likelihood of NIFTY breaking out of the current resistance? Such an occurrence is quite unlikely because of the negative divergences evident in both RSI and MACD. In other words, Nifty has reached its previous October peak but both RSI and MACD lag significantly lower than their previous peaks.
So until the Nifty posts a significant close beyond 5182, I’ll be content to go short or play the waiting game for the next 4-5 sessions.
The up trend is still intact but is looking a little fatigued. Many market participants have been expecting a consolidation phase for a while and the market has been ruthlessly whipsawing them.
· Bullish Cases:
o If Nifty penetrates above 5182, then it should achieve 5270
o Extreme case: If an ascending triangle is in play, then the minimum price objective upon upside penetration is 5900
· Bearish Cases:
o A correcting Nifty from this point on will be supported at the 4900 and 4660 levels.
o Assuming a regular flat (3-3-5) correction, the five wave impulse should carry Nifty down to a maximum 4400-4450.
o Extreme case: If a double top is in play, then the minimum price objective is 3950.
Sanjeet S. Parab
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Tuesday, December 8, 2009
3IINFOTECH- REPORT
3i INFOTECH (3IINFOTECH)
ORIGINAL REPORT LINK: http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/stock-analysis-station/2009-12-08--3iinfotech
Contents
List of Figures
Figure 1: 3IINFOTECH Significant Support/Resistance and Fibonacci Studies
Figure 2: 3IINFOTECH Prominent Chart Patterns
Figure 3: 3IINFOTECH Technical Indicators
General Information
Industry: IT Consulting & Software
Index Membership: BSE500 & BSESMLCAP
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=532628
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 108 | Figure 1 |
Upper 2 | 101 | Figure 2 |
Upper 1 | 92 | Figure 2 |
Current Price | 88.85 |
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Lower 1 | 88.20 | Figure 2 |
Lower 2 | 75 | Figure 2 |
Lower 3 | 68 | Figure 2 |
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Observations
§ Figure 1
o Major resistance at 108
§ Coinciding Factors: Resistance Level from May 2006, Triangle Apex, 61.8% Confluence Zone and the recent high of ~106.
§ Figure 2
o Symmetrical Triangle Apex at 68 will support 3i
o An intermediate W seems to be in the making. The two troughs of the W are currently being supported at 75. Furthermore, the 38.2% confluence zone nearly coincides with this level.
o The intermediate peak of the W made a high at ~88.
o 3i penetrated above this intermediate peak level (88.20) with high volume. Therefore, this level should act as support
o The minimum price objective or the W completion level is at 101
o Breakout of the descending triangle also saw a relative spurt in activity. Thus, the minimum price objective of the descending triangle is also 101.
o 3i touched its intermediate-term resistance level at ~92. An upside penetration of this level should see 3i continue rallying to 101
o Parabolic SAR: Buy
o EMA-15: Buy
§ Figure 3
o Bullish: MACD, DPO, Momentum and ROC
o Neutral: MFI and RSI
o Bearish: CCI and SlowD
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Technical Analysis
Figure 1: 3IINFOTECH Significant Support/Resistance and Fibonacci Studies
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Figure 2: 3IINFOTECH Prominent Chart Patterns
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Figure 3: 3IINFOTECH Technical Indicators
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- Sanjeet S. Parab
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Thursday, November 26, 2009
2009.11.25- NeyV, Ommeinfra, Satyam, Sail, SBI, Tanla, TCS
CONTENTS
OM METALS INFRAPROJECTS (HDFC)
SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES (SATYAM)
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED (SAIL)
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES (TCS)
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 20: NEVYLILIG 2004-2006
Figure 21: NEYVILILIG: 2007-2009
Figure 22: NEYVILILIG 2005-2009
Figure 23: NEYVILILIG 2008-2009
Figure 24: NEYVILILIG Technical Indicators
Figure 25: OMMEINFRA 2007-2009
Figure 28: SATYAM Technical Indicators
Figure 31: SAIL Technical Indicators
Figure 35: SBI Technical Indicators
Figure 40: TCS Technical Indicators
NEYVILI LIGNITE (NEYVILILIG)
General Information
Industry: Electric Utilities
Index Membership: BSE 200, BSE PSU, Power
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=513683
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 190-195 | Figure 21 |
Upper 2 | 180-185 | Figure 21, Figure 22 |
Upper 1 | 160 | Figure 22 |
Current Price | 151 | November 24, 2009 |
Lower 1 | 147 | Figure 23 |
Lower 2 | 135 | Figure 22 |
Lower 3 | 100 | Figure 22 |
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Observations
§ Figure 21
o Ascending Triangle with a Price Objective of about 190-195. Will face resistance at 180-185 level
§ Figure 22
o Major resistance at ~160 because the 50% confluence zone and a resistance level coincide at this level
o Resistance at ~180: Flag Price Objective coincides with a resistance level and the 61.8% confluence zone
o Major support at ~135 and ~100
§ Figure 23
o Because of upside breakout from the ascending triangle on high volume, the likelihood of this breakout being a whipsaw is almost ruled out
o Therefore, we can expect a significant amount of support at ~147
§ Figure 24
o Neutral-Bearish Technical Indicators: MACD, RSI peaking and retracing, and DPO crossing below the signal line
o Bullish: Slow stochastic is closer to the oversold region
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Technical Analysis
Figure 20: NEVYLILIG 2004-2006
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Figure 21: NEYVILILIG: 2007-2009
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Figure 22: NEYVILILIG 2005-2009
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Figure 23: NEYVILILIG 2008-2009
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Figure 24: NEYVILILIG Technical Indicators
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
OM METALS INFRAPROJECTS (HDFC)
General Information
Industry: Construction & Engineering
Index Membership: BSESMLCAP
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=531092
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 |
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Upper 2 |
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Upper 1 |
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Current Price |
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Lower 1 |
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Lower 2 |
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Lower 3 |
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Buy
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Observations
§ Figure 25
o Observe the volume skyscrapers accompanying rallies
o Accumulation phase: If you can wait for sometime, then buy with the pros
o Watch the saucer pan out nicely
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Technical Analysis
Figure 25: OMMEINFRA 2007-2009
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SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES (SATYAM)
General Information
Industry: IT & Consulting Software
Index Membership: NONE
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=500376
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 |
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Upper 2 |
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Upper 1 |
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Current Price |
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Lower 1 |
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Lower 2 |
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Lower 3 |
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TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Observations
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Technical Analysis
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Figure 28: SATYAM Technical Indicators
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED (SAIL)
General Information
Industry: Iron & Steel/Interm. Products
Index Membership: BSE 100, METAL, BSEPSU
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=500113
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 295 | Figure 29 |
Upper 2 | 260 | Figure 30 |
Upper 1 | 202 | Figure 30 |
Current Price | 194.60 |
|
Lower 1 | 150 | Figure 29 |
Lower 2 | 120 | Figure 29 |
Lower 3 | 95 | Figure 29 |
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Observations
§ Figure 29
o 2007 peak at ~295
o Various support levels identified: 150, 120 and 95
§ Figure 30
o SAIL is facing resistance as lies at the 61.8% retracement level (202) of the previous correction
o A penetration above this level will set off bullish bells and we can expect SAIL to approach its 2009 peak.
§ Figure 31
o Bearish Indicators: Overbought %D and RSI approaching the overbought region.
o Neutral: DPO and MACD
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Technical Analysis
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Figure 31: SAIL Technical Indicators
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
STATE BANK OF INDIA (SBI)
General Information
Industry: Banks
Index Membership: SENSEX, BSEPSU
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=500112
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 3215 | Extensions |
Upper 2 | 2970 | Extensions |
Upper 1 | 2574 | Figure 32 |
Current Price | 2305 |
|
Lower 1 | 2045 | Figure 33 |
Lower 2 | 1925 | Figure 33 |
Lower 3 | 1500 | Figure 34 |
Upper 2: ((2574-891)*.236) + 2574 = 2970
Upper 3: ((2574-891)*.382) + 2574 = 3215
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Observations
§ Figure 32
o As seen in this figure, a number of coinciding Fibonacci levels and support/resistance level make them reliable support levels.
§ Figure 33
o Supports at 2045 (23.6%), 1925 (61.8%), 1500 (61.8% retracement) and 890
o Triangle Apex: 1665
§ Figure 34
o Triangle apex has formed. Thus we can expect something drastic to happen soon. Either a ferocious rally or correction.
§ Figure 35
o Technical indicators are slightly bearish.
o DPO crossing below the zero line; RSI approaching the signal line; Bearish MACD crossover
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Technical Analysis
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Figure 35: SBI Technical Indicators
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
TANLA SOLUTIONS (TANLA)
General Information
Industry: IT Software Products
Index Membership: BSE 200, TECK, BSESMLCAP
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=532790
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 |
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Upper 2 |
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Upper 1 |
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Current Price | 59.45 |
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Lower 1 |
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Lower 2 |
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Lower 3 |
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Buy
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Observations
§ Figure 36
o Appears to be a saucer shaped recovery or a prolonged H&S pattern
§ Figure 37
o The symmetrical triangle gives a buy signal
o Furthermore, TANLA witnessed serious momentum on the right shoulder. High volume is accompanying rallies. This confirms the optimism.
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Technical Analysis
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TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES (TCS)
General Information
Industry: IT & Consulting Software
Index Membership: SENSEX, BSE IT, TECK
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=532540
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 980 | Extensions |
Upper 2 | 865 | Extensions |
Upper 1 | 800 | Extensions |
Current Price | 699.05 |
|
Lower 1 | 580 | Figure 39 |
Lower 2 | 510 | Figure 39 |
Lower 3 | 400 | Figure 39 |
Upper 1: ((685-207)*.236) + 684 = 810
Upper 2: ((685-207)*.382) + 684 = 880
Upper 3: ((685-207)*.618) + 684 = 995
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Observations
§ Figure 38
o Penetrated its 2006 peak
§ Figure 39
o Supports: 580, 510 and 400
§ Figure 40
o Overbought RSI and %D
o Bullish MACD pattern
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Technical Analysis
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Figure 40: TCS Technical Indicators
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-SANJEET S. PARAB
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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