December 24, 2009 NIFTY Short-Term Outlook

The NIFTY posted a much needed rally to set the festive season off to a good start. I am willing to tolerate a partial retracement till 5083 - 5038 in anticipation of the NIFTY carrying forward to 5268-5300.

-Sanjeet S. Parab
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2009.12.08- Report NIFTY

NIFTY- DECEMBER 11, 2009

 

ORIGINAL REPORT LINK: http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/nifty/nifty--december-11-2009

 

The NIFTY came ever so close to significantly penetrating above a resistance level tested two times in the past couple months. As all other technical analysts, I am looking for a significant close above the 5182 level to mark the continuation of the previous up trend.

 

Now what is the likelihood of NIFTY breaking out of the current resistance? Such an occurrence is quite unlikely because of the negative divergences evident in both RSI and MACD. In other words, Nifty has reached its previous October peak but both RSI and MACD lag significantly lower than their previous peaks.

 

So until the Nifty posts a significant close beyond 5182, I’ll be content to go short or play the waiting game for the next 4-5 sessions.

 

The up trend is still intact but is looking a little fatigued. Many market participants have been expecting a consolidation phase for a while and the market has been ruthlessly whipsawing them.

 

·        Bullish Cases:

o        If Nifty penetrates above 5182, then it should achieve 5270

o        Extreme case: If an ascending triangle is in play, then the minimum price objective upon upside penetration is 5900

 

·        Bearish Cases:

o        A correcting Nifty from this point on will be supported at the 4900 and 4660 levels.

o        Assuming a regular flat (3-3-5) correction, the five wave impulse should carry Nifty down to a maximum 4400-4450.

o        Extreme case: If a double top is in play, then the minimum price objective is 3950.

 

 

 

Sanjeet S. Parab

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3IINFOTECH- REPORT

3i INFOTECH (3IINFOTECH)

 

ORIGINAL REPORT LINK: http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/stock-analysis-station/2009-12-08--3iinfotech

 

Contents

 

General Information

Price Objectives

Observations

Technical Analysis

 

List of Figures

 

Figure 1: 3IINFOTECH Significant Support/Resistance and Fibonacci Studies

Figure 2: 3IINFOTECH Prominent Chart Patterns

Figure 3: 3IINFOTECH Technical Indicators

General Information

Industry: IT Consulting & Software

Index Membership: BSE500 & BSESMLCAP

BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=532628

 

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Price Objectives

 

Upper 3	108	Figure 1
Upper 2	101	Figure 2
Upper 1	92	Figure 2
Current Price	88.85
Lower 1	88.20	Figure 2
Lower 2	75	Figure 2
Lower 3	68	Figure 2

 

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Observations

 

§        Figure 1

o        Major resistance at 108

§        Coinciding Factors: Resistance Level from May 2006, Triangle Apex, 61.8% Confluence Zone and the recent high of ~106.

§        Figure 2

o        Symmetrical Triangle Apex at 68 will support 3i

o        An intermediate W seems to be in the making. The two troughs of the W are currently being supported at 75. Furthermore, the 38.2% confluence zone nearly coincides with this level.

o        The intermediate peak of the W made a high at ~88.

o        3i penetrated above this intermediate peak level (88.20) with high volume. Therefore, this level should act as support

o        The minimum price objective or the W completion level is at 101

o        Breakout of the descending triangle also saw a relative spurt in activity. Thus, the minimum price objective of the descending triangle is also 101.

o        3i touched its intermediate-term resistance level at ~92. An upside penetration of this level should see 3i continue rallying to 101

o        Parabolic SAR: Buy

o        EMA-15: Buy

§        Figure 3

o        Bullish: MACD, DPO, Momentum and ROC

o        Neutral: MFI and RSI

o        Bearish: CCI and SlowD

 

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Technical Analysis

Figure 1: 3IINFOTECH Significant Support/Resistance and Fibonacci Studies

 

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Figure 2: 3IINFOTECH Prominent Chart Patterns

 

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Figure 3: 3IINFOTECH Technical Indicators

 

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- Sanjeet S. Parab

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