Sahil:
Long-term: Either I want the Bankex to reverse its current downtrend or I would really have to be convinced in Dhanbank's ability to create value for me. I'd have to do a complete bottom-up analysis of Dhanbank to determine its value creation potential (which will take a significant amount of time to do...). I could overlook sector conditions to a certain extent if there is tremendous value creation potential. BUT, I need the ability to withstand a negative or stagnant position for possibly a significant amount of time. Not my style of investing 'yet'.
The shorter-term: Technicals
Not looking too pretty if you want to go long.
1) I'd consider a long position only above 125. Not really interested in parking my money as I wouldn't know whether we'll witness a pick up in momentum if I buy at a lower price. But, once the 125 barrier is breached, there should be greater buying interest.
2) I'd also recommend a buy at around the 95 region and anticipate a bounce upto 110-115. But this would be like catching a falling knife. If you do, have a tight SL.
3) You can buy at a lower price once we see that the trend has reversed. But, going off of today's chart, I don't see any such signal.
Remember, the market price is at a certain level for a certain reason. Personally, I'm not interested in being the genius who spotted the true potential of a company and bought in with the accumulators. I'm looking for a level when there will be greater interest. Targeting a return potential of 20-50% in 1-3-6 months. There's no guarantee that there will be greater interest at 125, but I'll be much more comfortable taking that risk.
Sanjeet
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Saturday, January 29, 2011
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Patni
Utpal: How do you see SESA GOA in 3 months time?
Patni is signing the deal with iGate this week. What is your take on a 1-2 week time frame?
1) Sesa Goa: As of now I'm long. I really want to see it break 350 and 386 so that I can hold it till we see 490 and breakout above that. But will not be interested if we breakdown below 280. In that case, the current rally will only be corrective in nature.
2) Technically, Patni looks pretty ugly because its been consolidating in a 200 point range since September 2009. Not a very pretty picture. Very simply, if you're long, you don't want Patni below 400. If you're short, then you don't want it over 600. I do not know the details of the deal, but if the information is already public, then it should be factored in the current market price. Future price action will depend on new information. So, for some serious action within 1-2 weeks, we'll may need some sort of a surprise. Or may be just an upside breakout above the downtrend trendline in shown in Chart 1. If you are willing to risk a bit, then I'd suggest buying once price breaks out above 500 with the following profit targets: 520, 550, 600.
Chart 1. Patni Daily
Having said that, I may well be interested in Patni for the longer term given that we see a convincing breakout above 600 (and if the fundamentals are fairly decent as well). 600 was the peak formed in May 2007 and was retested in May 2010. So guess what, we break that after this year long breather that Patni has taken, then we could potentially witness a nice up move.
Chart 2. Patni
-Sanjeet Parab
Patni is signing the deal with iGate this week. What is your take on a 1-2 week time frame?
1) Sesa Goa: As of now I'm long. I really want to see it break 350 and 386 so that I can hold it till we see 490 and breakout above that. But will not be interested if we breakdown below 280. In that case, the current rally will only be corrective in nature.
2) Technically, Patni looks pretty ugly because its been consolidating in a 200 point range since September 2009. Not a very pretty picture. Very simply, if you're long, you don't want Patni below 400. If you're short, then you don't want it over 600. I do not know the details of the deal, but if the information is already public, then it should be factored in the current market price. Future price action will depend on new information. So, for some serious action within 1-2 weeks, we'll may need some sort of a surprise. Or may be just an upside breakout above the downtrend trendline in shown in Chart 1. If you are willing to risk a bit, then I'd suggest buying once price breaks out above 500 with the following profit targets: 520, 550, 600.
Chart 1. Patni Daily
Having said that, I may well be interested in Patni for the longer term given that we see a convincing breakout above 600 (and if the fundamentals are fairly decent as well). 600 was the peak formed in May 2007 and was retested in May 2010. So guess what, we break that after this year long breather that Patni has taken, then we could potentially witness a nice up move.
Chart 2. Patni
-Sanjeet Parab
Friday, December 31, 2010
DJIA for the Long-Term Bulls
- There is no need to write much about this monthly chart. Nor are we required to perform too much analysis.
- The good news is that we've broken above the 61.8% level and that the likelihood of reaching the 100% level (2007 peak) is increased.
- However, the bad news is that we have a fairly prominent peak which formed in January 2000 that will potentially resist the bullish price action.
- So, I'd suggest being vigilant out there in January if we do not see a convincing breakout above 11,750.
-Sanjeet Parab
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Long Sesa Goa
Its been a while since I last looked at Indian markets. Came across an excellent set up for Sesa Goa.
There are some extremely positive technical developments for Sesa Goa Bulls.
DAILY CHART SIGNALS:
1) Breakout above the downtrending resistance line
2) Bullish Slow%D Stochastic divergence
3) Breakout and close above the 308 resistance level which was tested thrice in the recent past
***For points 1 and 3, I would like to see an open and close above the trend lines. We already have an open, but will have to wait and see if Sesa Goa closes above them today (December 27, 2010). If so, then I would look for an immediate entry given that price did not run away too much from these levels. If price closes way beyond these levels, then would wait for a swing low prior to making an entry.
**Would suggest an SL at 277 because it looks like a descending triangle. So, if the bullish price action does not gain momentum from here, then beware.
--Sanjeet Parab
http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/
There are some extremely positive technical developments for Sesa Goa Bulls.
DAILY CHART SIGNALS:
1) Breakout above the downtrending resistance line
2) Bullish Slow%D Stochastic divergence
3) Breakout and close above the 308 resistance level which was tested thrice in the recent past
***For points 1 and 3, I would like to see an open and close above the trend lines. We already have an open, but will have to wait and see if Sesa Goa closes above them today (December 27, 2010). If so, then I would look for an immediate entry given that price did not run away too much from these levels. If price closes way beyond these levels, then would wait for a swing low prior to making an entry.
**Would suggest an SL at 277 because it looks like a descending triangle. So, if the bullish price action does not gain momentum from here, then beware.
--Sanjeet Parab
http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/
Saturday, July 24, 2010
479.7 pips Gain: Feedback to EUR/USD July 4, 2010 Forecast
As correctly forecasted, EUR/USD rallied about 480 pips to take out 1.3 on the 10th trading day from the July 4 forecast. A $4797 gain for half a months of work... Fairly decent.
To view July 4, 2010 forecast, go to http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/fx-corner/eur-usd-july-4-2010
Sanjeet Parab
________________________________
To view July 4, 2010 forecast, go to http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/fx-corner/eur-usd-july-4-2010
Sanjeet Parab
________________________________
Saturday, July 3, 2010
EUR.USD July 4, 2010- Looking for some more upside
Traders should be extremely vigilant when the EUR/USD approaches the major support and resistance levels identified on the monthly chart. Of immediate interest though is that we have two fairly strong support levels at 1.2444 and 1.2399. I personally expect a minor correction to a level just above 1.2444. A bounce of either of these levels should propel the EUR/USD to 1.3 relatively quickly.
Sanjeet Parab
Saturday, January 16, 2010
ZENOTECH 532039- January 17, 2010
I'm definitely bullish on Zenotech. Needless to say, purely on a technical basis. http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/stock-analysis-station/zenotech-532039--2010-01-17
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Saturday, December 26, 2009
December 24, 2009 NIFTY Short-Term Outlook
The NIFTY posted a much needed rally to set the festive season off to a good start. I am willing to tolerate a partial retracement till 5083 - 5038 in anticipation of the NIFTY carrying forward to 5268-5300.
-Sanjeet S. Parab
Visit Technical Analysis Base for more Forecasts.
-Sanjeet S. Parab
Visit Technical Analysis Base for more Forecasts.
Friday, December 11, 2009
2009.12.08- Report NIFTY
NIFTY- DECEMBER 11, 2009
ORIGINAL REPORT LINK: http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/nifty/nifty--december-11-2009
The NIFTY came ever so close to significantly penetrating above a resistance level tested two times in the past couple months. As all other technical analysts, I am looking for a significant close above the 5182 level to mark the continuation of the previous up trend.
Now what is the likelihood of NIFTY breaking out of the current resistance? Such an occurrence is quite unlikely because of the negative divergences evident in both RSI and MACD. In other words, Nifty has reached its previous October peak but both RSI and MACD lag significantly lower than their previous peaks.
So until the Nifty posts a significant close beyond 5182, I’ll be content to go short or play the waiting game for the next 4-5 sessions.
The up trend is still intact but is looking a little fatigued. Many market participants have been expecting a consolidation phase for a while and the market has been ruthlessly whipsawing them.
· Bullish Cases:
o If Nifty penetrates above 5182, then it should achieve 5270
o Extreme case: If an ascending triangle is in play, then the minimum price objective upon upside penetration is 5900
· Bearish Cases:
o A correcting Nifty from this point on will be supported at the 4900 and 4660 levels.
o Assuming a regular flat (3-3-5) correction, the five wave impulse should carry Nifty down to a maximum 4400-4450.
o Extreme case: If a double top is in play, then the minimum price objective is 3950.
Sanjeet S. Parab
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Tuesday, December 8, 2009
3IINFOTECH- REPORT
3i INFOTECH (3IINFOTECH)
ORIGINAL REPORT LINK: http://www.technicalanalysisbase.com/stock-analysis-station/2009-12-08--3iinfotech
Contents
List of Figures
Figure 1: 3IINFOTECH Significant Support/Resistance and Fibonacci Studies
Figure 2: 3IINFOTECH Prominent Chart Patterns
Figure 3: 3IINFOTECH Technical Indicators
General Information
Industry: IT Consulting & Software
Index Membership: BSE500 & BSESMLCAP
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=532628
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Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 108 | Figure 1 |
Upper 2 | 101 | Figure 2 |
Upper 1 | 92 | Figure 2 |
Current Price | 88.85 |
|
Lower 1 | 88.20 | Figure 2 |
Lower 2 | 75 | Figure 2 |
Lower 3 | 68 | Figure 2 |
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Observations
§ Figure 1
o Major resistance at 108
§ Coinciding Factors: Resistance Level from May 2006, Triangle Apex, 61.8% Confluence Zone and the recent high of ~106.
§ Figure 2
o Symmetrical Triangle Apex at 68 will support 3i
o An intermediate W seems to be in the making. The two troughs of the W are currently being supported at 75. Furthermore, the 38.2% confluence zone nearly coincides with this level.
o The intermediate peak of the W made a high at ~88.
o 3i penetrated above this intermediate peak level (88.20) with high volume. Therefore, this level should act as support
o The minimum price objective or the W completion level is at 101
o Breakout of the descending triangle also saw a relative spurt in activity. Thus, the minimum price objective of the descending triangle is also 101.
o 3i touched its intermediate-term resistance level at ~92. An upside penetration of this level should see 3i continue rallying to 101
o Parabolic SAR: Buy
o EMA-15: Buy
§ Figure 3
o Bullish: MACD, DPO, Momentum and ROC
o Neutral: MFI and RSI
o Bearish: CCI and SlowD
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Technical Analysis
Figure 1: 3IINFOTECH Significant Support/Resistance and Fibonacci Studies
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Figure 2: 3IINFOTECH Prominent Chart Patterns
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Figure 3: 3IINFOTECH Technical Indicators
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- Sanjeet S. Parab
__________________________________________________________
Thursday, November 26, 2009
2009.11.25- NeyV, Ommeinfra, Satyam, Sail, SBI, Tanla, TCS
CONTENTS
OM METALS INFRAPROJECTS (HDFC)
SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES (SATYAM)
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED (SAIL)
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES (TCS)
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 20: NEVYLILIG 2004-2006
Figure 21: NEYVILILIG: 2007-2009
Figure 22: NEYVILILIG 2005-2009
Figure 23: NEYVILILIG 2008-2009
Figure 24: NEYVILILIG Technical Indicators
Figure 25: OMMEINFRA 2007-2009
Figure 28: SATYAM Technical Indicators
Figure 31: SAIL Technical Indicators
Figure 35: SBI Technical Indicators
Figure 40: TCS Technical Indicators
NEYVILI LIGNITE (NEYVILILIG)
General Information
Industry: Electric Utilities
Index Membership: BSE 200, BSE PSU, Power
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=513683
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Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 190-195 | Figure 21 |
Upper 2 | 180-185 | Figure 21, Figure 22 |
Upper 1 | 160 | Figure 22 |
Current Price | 151 | November 24, 2009 |
Lower 1 | 147 | Figure 23 |
Lower 2 | 135 | Figure 22 |
Lower 3 | 100 | Figure 22 |
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Observations
§ Figure 21
o Ascending Triangle with a Price Objective of about 190-195. Will face resistance at 180-185 level
§ Figure 22
o Major resistance at ~160 because the 50% confluence zone and a resistance level coincide at this level
o Resistance at ~180: Flag Price Objective coincides with a resistance level and the 61.8% confluence zone
o Major support at ~135 and ~100
§ Figure 23
o Because of upside breakout from the ascending triangle on high volume, the likelihood of this breakout being a whipsaw is almost ruled out
o Therefore, we can expect a significant amount of support at ~147
§ Figure 24
o Neutral-Bearish Technical Indicators: MACD, RSI peaking and retracing, and DPO crossing below the signal line
o Bullish: Slow stochastic is closer to the oversold region
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Technical Analysis
Figure 20: NEVYLILIG 2004-2006
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Figure 21: NEYVILILIG: 2007-2009
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Figure 22: NEYVILILIG 2005-2009
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Figure 23: NEYVILILIG 2008-2009
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Figure 24: NEYVILILIG Technical Indicators
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OM METALS INFRAPROJECTS (HDFC)
General Information
Industry: Construction & Engineering
Index Membership: BSESMLCAP
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=531092
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Price Objectives
Upper 3 |
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Upper 2 |
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Upper 1 |
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Current Price |
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Lower 1 |
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Lower 2 |
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Lower 3 |
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Buy
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Observations
§ Figure 25
o Observe the volume skyscrapers accompanying rallies
o Accumulation phase: If you can wait for sometime, then buy with the pros
o Watch the saucer pan out nicely
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Technical Analysis
Figure 25: OMMEINFRA 2007-2009
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SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES (SATYAM)
General Information
Industry: IT & Consulting Software
Index Membership: NONE
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=500376
TOP / STOCK ANALYSIS STATION / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASE HOME
Price Objectives
Upper 3 |
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Upper 2 |
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Upper 1 |
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Current Price |
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Lower 1 |
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Lower 2 |
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Lower 3 |
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|
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Observations
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Technical Analysis
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Figure 28: SATYAM Technical Indicators
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STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED (SAIL)
General Information
Industry: Iron & Steel/Interm. Products
Index Membership: BSE 100, METAL, BSEPSU
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=500113
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Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 295 | Figure 29 |
Upper 2 | 260 | Figure 30 |
Upper 1 | 202 | Figure 30 |
Current Price | 194.60 |
|
Lower 1 | 150 | Figure 29 |
Lower 2 | 120 | Figure 29 |
Lower 3 | 95 | Figure 29 |
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Observations
§ Figure 29
o 2007 peak at ~295
o Various support levels identified: 150, 120 and 95
§ Figure 30
o SAIL is facing resistance as lies at the 61.8% retracement level (202) of the previous correction
o A penetration above this level will set off bullish bells and we can expect SAIL to approach its 2009 peak.
§ Figure 31
o Bearish Indicators: Overbought %D and RSI approaching the overbought region.
o Neutral: DPO and MACD
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Technical Analysis
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Figure 31: SAIL Technical Indicators
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STATE BANK OF INDIA (SBI)
General Information
Industry: Banks
Index Membership: SENSEX, BSEPSU
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=500112
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Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 3215 | Extensions |
Upper 2 | 2970 | Extensions |
Upper 1 | 2574 | Figure 32 |
Current Price | 2305 |
|
Lower 1 | 2045 | Figure 33 |
Lower 2 | 1925 | Figure 33 |
Lower 3 | 1500 | Figure 34 |
Upper 2: ((2574-891)*.236) + 2574 = 2970
Upper 3: ((2574-891)*.382) + 2574 = 3215
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Observations
§ Figure 32
o As seen in this figure, a number of coinciding Fibonacci levels and support/resistance level make them reliable support levels.
§ Figure 33
o Supports at 2045 (23.6%), 1925 (61.8%), 1500 (61.8% retracement) and 890
o Triangle Apex: 1665
§ Figure 34
o Triangle apex has formed. Thus we can expect something drastic to happen soon. Either a ferocious rally or correction.
§ Figure 35
o Technical indicators are slightly bearish.
o DPO crossing below the zero line; RSI approaching the signal line; Bearish MACD crossover
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Technical Analysis
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Figure 35: SBI Technical Indicators
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TANLA SOLUTIONS (TANLA)
General Information
Industry: IT Software Products
Index Membership: BSE 200, TECK, BSESMLCAP
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=532790
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Price Objectives
Upper 3 |
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Upper 2 |
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Upper 1 |
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Current Price | 59.45 |
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Lower 1 |
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Lower 2 |
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Lower 3 |
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Buy
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Observations
§ Figure 36
o Appears to be a saucer shaped recovery or a prolonged H&S pattern
§ Figure 37
o The symmetrical triangle gives a buy signal
o Furthermore, TANLA witnessed serious momentum on the right shoulder. High volume is accompanying rallies. This confirms the optimism.
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Technical Analysis
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TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES (TCS)
General Information
Industry: IT & Consulting Software
Index Membership: SENSEX, BSE IT, TECK
BSE Link: http://bseindia.com/stockreach/stockreach.htm?scripcd=532540
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Price Objectives
Upper 3 | 980 | Extensions |
Upper 2 | 865 | Extensions |
Upper 1 | 800 | Extensions |
Current Price | 699.05 |
|
Lower 1 | 580 | Figure 39 |
Lower 2 | 510 | Figure 39 |
Lower 3 | 400 | Figure 39 |
Upper 1: ((685-207)*.236) + 684 = 810
Upper 2: ((685-207)*.382) + 684 = 880
Upper 3: ((685-207)*.618) + 684 = 995
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Observations
§ Figure 38
o Penetrated its 2006 peak
§ Figure 39
o Supports: 580, 510 and 400
§ Figure 40
o Overbought RSI and %D
o Bullish MACD pattern
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Technical Analysis
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Figure 40: TCS Technical Indicators
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-SANJEET S. PARAB
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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