Wave Personality- Elliott Wave Principle

The idea of wave personality is a substantial expansion of the Wave Principle. It has the advantage of bringing human behavior more personally into the equation and even more important of enhancing the utility of standard technical analysis. The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral art of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure. These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one’s present location in the progression of waves.

1) First waves- As a rough estimate, about half of first waves are part of the “basing” process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten “one more rally to sell on,” and they take advantage of it. The other fifty percent of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.

2) Second waves- Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends. This is especially true of call option purchases, as premiums sink dramatically in the environment of fear during second waves. At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear market is back to stay. Second waves often produce downside non-confirmations and Down Theory “buy spots,” when low volume and volatility indicate a drying up of selling pressure.

3) Third waves- Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable. Increasingly favorable fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns. Third waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movement and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, of course, that the third wave of third wave, and so on, will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Such points invariably produce breakouts, “continuation” gaps, volume expansions, exceptional breadth, major Dow Theory trend confirmations and runaway price movement, creating largely hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly gains in the market, depending on the degree of the wave. Virtually all stocks participate in third waves. Besides the personality of “B” waves, that of third waves produces the most valuable clues to the wave count as it unfolds.

4) Fourth waves- Fourth waves are predictable in both depth (see Depth of Corrective Waves) and form, because by alternation they should differ from the previous second wave of the same degree. More often than not they trend sideways, building the base for the final fifth wave move. Lagging stocks build their tops and begin declining during this wave, since only the strength of a third wave was able to generate any motion in them in the first place. This initial deterioration in the market sets the stage for non-confirmations and subtle signs of weakness during the fifth wave.

5) Fifth waves- Fifth waves in stocks are always less dynamic than third waves in terms of breadth. They usually display a slower maximum speed of price change as well, although if a fifth wave constitutes an extension, speed of price change in the third of the fifth can exceed that of the third wave. Similarly, while it is common for volume to increase through successive impulse waves at Cycle degree or larger, it usually happens below Primary degree only if the fifth wave extends. Otherwise, look for lesser volume as a rule in a fifth wave as opposed to the third. Market dabblers sometimes call for “blowoffs” at the end of long trends, but the stock market has no history of reaching maximum acceleration at a peak. Even if a fifth wave extends, the fifth of the fifth will lack the dynamism of what preceded it. During the fifth advancing waves, optimism runs extremely high, despite a narrowing of breadth. Nevertheless, market action does improve relative to prior corrective wave rallies.

6) “A” waves- During “A” waves of bear markets, the investment world is generally convinced that this reaction is just a pullback pursuant to the next leg of advance. The public surges to the buy side despite the first really technically damaging cracks in individual stock patterns. The “A” wave sets the tone for the “B” wave to follow. A five-wave A indicates a zigzag for wave B, while a three-wave A indicates a flat or triangle.

7) “B” waves- “B” waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators’ paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often “unconfirmed” by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, “There is something wrong with this market,” chances are it’s a “B” wave. “X” and “D” waves in expanding triangles, both of which are corrective wave advances have the same characteristics. As an observation, “B” waves of Intermediate degree and lower usually show a diminution of volume, while “B” waves of Primary degree and greater can display volume heavier than that which accompanied the preceding bull market, usually indicating wide public participation.

8) “C” waves- Declining “C” waves are usually devastating in their destruction. They are third waves and have most of the properties of third waves. It is during this decline that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. The illusions held throughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and fear takes over. “C” waves are persistent and broad. 1930-1932 was a “C” wave. Advancing “C” waves within upward corrections in larger bear markets are just as dynamic and can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing especially since they unfold in five waves. The October 1973 rally was a “C” wave in an inverted expanded flat correction

9) “D” waves- “D” waves in all but expanding triangles are often accompanied by increased volume. This is true probably because “D” waves in non-expanding triangles are hybrids, part corrective, yet having some characteristics of first waves since they follow “C” waves and are not fully retraced. “D” waves, being advances within corrective waves, are as phony as “B” waves.

10) “E” waves- “E” waves in triangles appear to most market observers to be the dramatic kickoff of a new downtrend after a top has been built. They almost always are accompanied by strongly supportive news. That in conjunction with the tendency of “E” waves to stage a false breakdown through the triangle boundary line, intensifies the bearish conviction of market participants at precisely the time that they should be preparing for a substantial move in the opposite direction. Thus, “E” waves, being ending waves, are attended by a psychology as emotional as that of the fifth waves.

All material is borrowed from and all credits go to Frost and Prechter's Elliott Wave Principle.

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